Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x990c…2b59 sports 352 markets active 1h ago coverage 651d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%24W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$33
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$19
politics 30% −$17
other 24% −$22
economics 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$6
tech 2% −$4
world 2% −$1
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 76 -0.7% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 84 -0.7% -10.2% 2% 0% -10.1%
all 351 -0.4% -9.9% 7% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

651d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses24 / 327
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)351 / 352
History coverage651d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $65 −$5 -7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $181 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $112 −$2 -2%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $275 −$2 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $42 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $225 −$3 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 08 $138 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $218 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $55 −$1 -3%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $53 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $103 −$3 -3%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $55 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $117 −$1 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $233 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $55 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $511 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 91¢ $60 1h
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 98¢ $65 5h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 6h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 14h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 14h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 20h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $54 21h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $54 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $56 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $56 29h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $58 30h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $58 36h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $64 36h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $65 44h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $52 45h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $53 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $45 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $22 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $63 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $16 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $13 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.04 · official $50.04 (match) · 1251 history records