Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x990c…0cef crypto 1754 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$237 (+1%) realized +$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate83%1448W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day89.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$244
14 days+$74
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 634 +4.1% -5.8% 84% 50% -5.9%
≤30d 1754 +0.5% -9.1% 83% 46% -9.3%
≤90d 1754 +0.5% -9.1% 83% 46% -9.3%
all 1754 +0.5% -9.1% 83% 46% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 46% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 29% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 18% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1448 / 306
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1754 / 1754
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day89.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1754 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.35 · official $334.35 (match) · 3500 history records