Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

99
0x9907…8a50
weather · 164 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$184 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$235 · open −$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56
Realized+$235
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses66 / 96
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage98d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$86
14 days+$124
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 60¢ 30¢ $102 $52 −$50 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or higher on May 13? No 39¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 25? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 8? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on May 27? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 27? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 23? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 9? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 20? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 17? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 13? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 2? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 5? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 4? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 4? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $37 −$21 -57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 −$13 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $124 +$26 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $69 +$27 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 −$9 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$17 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $79 +$23 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$26 +847%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $24 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $24 +$20 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 6? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $111 +$42 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 4? Jun 04 $72 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $30 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$14 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $97 +$57 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $8 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $159 +$24 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $9 −$5 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $227 −$38 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $7 −$5 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $95 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 29? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $16 +$36 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28? May 28 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $283 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 27? May 27 $21 +$40 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on May 27? May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 26? May 26 $113 −$6 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 26? May 26 $17 −$14 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 26? May 26 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 26? May 26 $11 −$6 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 25? May 25 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 25? May 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $291 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 24? May 24 $224 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% +$259
other 4% −$14
sports 2% −$55
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $103 5m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 5m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 12m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 15m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 56m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 58m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 10¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 17h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $66 36h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 38h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 78¢ $13 39h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 41h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 41h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 61¢ $28 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +37.7% +24.6% 41% 41% +5.3%
≤30d 68 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 24% -6.6%
≤90d 157 +0.4% -9.1% 41% 28% -5.8%
all 162 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 27% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 27% -6.2%
10% -19.0% 22% -15.1%
15% -26.8% 19% -23.3%
20% -34.0% 16% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.60 · official $55.60 (match) · 570 history records