Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9906…c0ae other 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,576 (+4%) realized +$5,582 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%135W / 157L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$128
14 days+$269
30 days+$1,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$4,102
other 25% +$740
tech 4% −$183
politics 0% +$88
culture 0% −$159
economics 0% +$81
sports 0% −$73
crypto 0% +$18
finance 0% −$16
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.6% +0.9% 60% 40% +5.1%
≤30d 43 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 35% -2.6%
≤90d 189 +8.7% -1.7% 48% 30% -7.1%
all 292 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 28% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 28% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 20% -15.4%
15% -29.1% 18% -23.6%
20% -36.1% 14% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$44 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$1,135
Realized+$5,582
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses135 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)292 / 298
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$482
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $998 $995 −$3 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $122 $122 +$0 (+0%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $4 −$2 -68%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 28 $13 +$11 +85%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $13 +$27 +204%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 27 $206 +$8 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3,771 −$13 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +110%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $436 +$99 +23%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $111 +$3 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $11 −$5 -45%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $17 −$6 -34%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $415 +$46 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $67 +$2 +3%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 19 $7 +$5 +75%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $70 +$50 +71%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $46 −$28 -61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $1,075 +$66 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +159%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $796 +$42 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $32 +$2 +5%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $19 +$15 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,755 +$49 +3%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $421 −$104 -25%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $2,770 +$179 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$46 +82%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1,924 +$147 +8%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $23 +$14 +61%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $39 −$5 -13%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $31 −$19 -62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $770 +$30 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2,523 +$133 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $3,416 +$393 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,104 +$235 +11%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 04 $126 +$75 +60%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $255 +$109 +43%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 26 $5 −$4 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 26 $400 +$27 +7%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 25 $64 +$4 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $77 34m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $111 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $66 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 29h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $5 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $81 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $14 37h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 35¢ $10 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $486 41h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $7 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $76 47h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,135.38 · official $1,135.38 (match) · 3500 history records