Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x9905…04a0 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$47 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$89
politics 30% −$85
crypto 16% −$227
finance 7% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +14.8% +3.9% 100% 100% +3.7%
≤30d 2 +14.8% +3.9% 100% 100% +3.7%
≤90d 3 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 100% +6.9%
all 8 -37.0% -43.0% 50% 50% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 50% -29.3%
10% -48.4% 25% -36.0%
15% -53.4% 12% -42.2%
20% -58.0% 12% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$78 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage592d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 86¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $78 +$9 +12%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $66 +$12 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 09 $100 +$23 +23%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japan Jan 27 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $200 +$103 +51%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $365 −$15 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $87 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $78 20h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $78 20h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $66 45h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 80¢ $123 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 64¢ $100 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 12? BUY No 27¢ $200 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $25 101d
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japan BUY Yes 5¢ $70 144d
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson? SELL No 100¢ $303 581d
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson? BUY No 66¢ $141 582d
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson? BUY No 66¢ $39 582d
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson? BUY No 66¢ $20 582d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 100¢ $561 591d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 3¢ $15 591d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $350 592d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.88 · official $301.99 (match) · 37 history records