Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
99 0x9905…3b6e crypto 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%75W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$9
sports 4% +$3
finance 3% +$5
world 1% −$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -22.3% -29.7% 54% 54% -29.8%
≤30d 54 +7.4% -2.8% 67% 67% -1.0%
≤90d 104 +0.4% -9.2% 70% 57% -13.3%
all 106 +1.4% -8.3% 71% 57% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 57% -10.4%
10% -17.1% 47% -19.0%
15% -25.1% 33% -26.8%
20% -32.4% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses75 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage178d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records