Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

99
0x9902…34b3
world · 90 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,709 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,432 · open +$907
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,757
Realized−$4,432
Unrealized+$907
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$674
Open positions61
Markets (closed)69 / 90
History coverage54d
Avg bet$1,411
Trades / day61.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 61 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 42¢ $1,046 $1,742 +$696 (+67%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 8¢ 22¢ $600 $1,613 +$1,013 (+169%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 75¢ 81¢ $443 $480 +$37 (+8%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $313 $449 +$135 (+43%)
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 78¢ 77¢ $218 $214 −$3 (-2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 95¢ 94¢ $207 $203 −$4 (-2%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 88¢ 95¢ $165 $177 +$12 (+7%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 64¢ 86¢ $129 $174 +$45 (+35%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 29¢ 30¢ $153 $159 +$6 (+4%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $149 $151 +$2 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 85¢ 58¢ $197 $133 −$63 (-32%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 97¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 32¢ 54¢ $73 $122 +$49 (+68%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $15 $115 +$100 (+660%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 70¢ 84¢ $84 $100 +$16 (+19%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 20¢ 42¢ $46 $96 +$51 (+112%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 36¢ 50¢ $70 $96 +$26 (+38%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $95 $91 −$4 (-4%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 95¢ 94¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 65¢ 62¢ $84 $80 −$5 (-5%)
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 94¢ 100¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 59¢ 70¢ $47 $55 +$9 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $313 +$135 +43%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$100 +660%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$10 +409%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 12 $0 +$43 +14825%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $119 −$119 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Jun 12 $36 −$32 -88%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Jun 12 $182 −$182 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? May 16 $188 +$201 +107%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $1,779 +$2,340 +132%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? May 13 $662 −$14 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $702 −$765 -109%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $10 +$316 +3126%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,144 −$1,144 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,671 +$259 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $326 −$61 -19%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $15 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,077 −$113 -10%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $280 −$205 -73%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $106 +$27 +26%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $942 −$643 -68%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $135 −$125 -92%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $135 +$713 +530%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 25 $353 +$69 +20%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 24 $36 −$2 -5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 24 $6,810 +$764 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $1,006 −$88 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $526 −$39 -7%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 24 $35 −$22 -62%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 24 $71 +$68 +96%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $7,632 −$1,648 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $3,269 +$5,224 +160%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,658 −$309 -19%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 23 $6,377 −$2,051 -32%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 23 $3,508 −$766 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $39 −$14 -35%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?? Apr 22 $40 +$1 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $7,379 −$1,576 -21%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 22 $29,815 +$1,185 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $968 +$326 +34%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $1,100 +$859 +78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $337 −$174 -52%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $369 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $129 +$20 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$8,654
world 24% +$6,389
other 2% −$223
finance 1% −$1,246
tech 1% +$89
politics 0% +$197
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $26 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $8 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 88¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +61.6% +46.2% 50% 17% -54.5%
≤30d 9 +59.8% +44.5% 67% 44% +0.8%
≤90d 69 +74.0% +57.4% 46% 36% -12.3%
all 69 +74.0% +57.4% 46% 36% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.4% 36% -12.3%
10% +42.3% 28% -20.7%
15% ← realistic here +28.6% 22% -28.4%
20% +16.0% 20% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,756.75 · official $7,756.50 (match) · 3500 history records