Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x98ff…c674 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$242 (+63%) realized +$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$242
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +64.5% +48.8% 100% 100% +47.2%
≤30d 3 +64.5% +48.8% 100% 100% +47.2%
≤90d 3 +64.5% +48.8% 100% 100% +47.2%
all 3 +64.5% +48.8% 100% 100% +47.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.8% 100% +47.2%
10% +34.6% 100% +33.1%
15% +21.6% 67% +20.3%
20% +9.7% 67% +8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $93 +$25 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$118 +114%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $190 +$98 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records