Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98fe…a726 world 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$89 (-2%) realized −$88 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate27%25W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$38
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$13
other 13% −$19
crypto 11% −$39
politics 11% −$7
finance 9% −$28
tech 2% −$17
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 24 -8.9% -17.6% 25% 4% -12.6%
≤90d 91 -6.1% -15.1% 27% 14% -11.4%
all 91 -6.1% -15.1% 27% 14% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 14% -11.4%
10% -23.2% 11% -19.9%
15% -30.6% 8% -27.6%
20% -37.4% 4% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses25 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)91 / 99
History coverage75d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $147 −$20 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $88 −$7 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 −$4 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 11 $23 −$3 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $8 $0 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $19 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $6 −$2 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $19 +$8 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 07 $9 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $6 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $9 −$1 -16%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $278 −$5 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $20 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $92 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 26 $164 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $125 −$31 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $166 −$10 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 23 $28 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 23 $64 −$5 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $438 −$15 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 15 $78 −$6 -8%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $17 −$2 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $111 −$7 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 08 $23 −$3 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 07 $233 +$21 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 07 $9 −$1 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 07 $15 −$6 -38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $26 +$3 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $6 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $26 +$6 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $11 −$1 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $33 −$5 -16%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $266 −$6 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 01 $32 −$2 -6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $129 +$49 +38%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 30 $19 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $35 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.78 · official $115.74 (match) · 1188 history records