Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98fe…ffa7 crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-4%) realized −$116 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%43W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$119
other 23% +$133
sports 10% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -13.3% -21.6% 51% 49% -11.1%
≤30d 84 -13.3% -21.6% 51% 49% -11.1%
≤90d 84 -13.3% -21.6% 51% 49% -11.1%
all 84 -13.3% -21.6% 51% 49% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 49% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 48% -19.6%
15% -35.9% 42% -27.4%
20% -42.2% 32% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses43 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 91
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 81¢ $0 $61 +$61 (+0%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 0¢ 34¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+0%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 31¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 +$15 +15%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $27 +$36 +134%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$25 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$9 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 +$13 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $18 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 15h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $63 15h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $27 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $17 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 59¢ $10 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 19h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 67¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $15 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $14 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $15 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.59 · official $99.85 (match) · 166 history records