Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x98fc…5382 other 668 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,282 (-9%) realized −$2,089 · open −$193
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate77%449W / 133L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$28
14 days+$42
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$1,897
other 22% −$349
world 15% +$218
politics 9% −$122
sports 5% −$288
economics 3% −$5
tech 3% +$114
culture 1% +$26
finance 0% −$19
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.6% +0.9% 100% 43% -2.1%
≤30d 28 +15.7% +4.7% 96% 54% -1.3%
≤90d 74 +19.0% +7.6% 95% 47% -0.3%
all 582 -7.1% -15.9% 77% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 39% -17.4%
10% -24.0% 20% -25.3%
15% -31.3% 12% -32.5%
20% -38.0% 7% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$29 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$1,472
Realized−$2,089
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses449 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions86
Markets (closed)582 / 668
History coverage234d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 90¢ 81¢ $180 $163 −$17 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? No 97¢ 95¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 46¢ 42¢ $92 $83 −$9 (-10%)
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $133 $81 −$52 (-39%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? No 96¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Will fewer than 100 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? No 97¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+21%)
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? No 94¢ 86¢ $28 $26 −$3 (-9%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+15%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+17%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 87¢ 99¢ $17 $20 +$2 (+14%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+16%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $59 $18 −$40 (-69%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 81¢ 90¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 61¢ 90¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+47%)
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? No 77¢ 89¢ $15 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 86¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? No 69¢ 79¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $8 +$1 +16%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 26 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? Jun 26 $11 +$4 +36%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Colombe Cahen-Salvador be the next Secretary General of the Unite Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Jun 26 $27 +$10 +36%
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Jun 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? Jun 26 $16 +$3 +20%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Jun 26 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $19 +$4 +23%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will Brooklyn Pickleball Team finish in 1st place at the Major League Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $16 +$4 +25%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Bright Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 14 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +6%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? Jun 02 $22 +$8 +37%
Will the NBA alter draft lottery rules? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? May 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 27 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 27 $6 +$4 +82%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar May 27 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 21 $10 $0 +5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $5 +$5 +85%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 17 $18 +$22 +121%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $70 +$10 +15%
Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.75 in April? May 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026? May 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will anyone propose at the Met Gala? May 09 $17 +$3 +18%
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Total Games O/U 4.5 May 04 $8 +$2 +29%
NBA: Co-Rookie of the Year winners? May 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will either Tate brother be arrested by March 31? May 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 04 $15 +$4 +29%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 22? May 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? May 04 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+? Apr 22 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 16-19 2026? Apr 22 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $17 +$3 +20%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Apr 19 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? Apr 17 $44 +$6 +13%
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31? Apr 08 $3 +$7 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $16 1h
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $15 1h
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Will Colombe Cahen-Salvador be the next Secretary General of the Unite SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 1h
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $16 1h
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? SELL No 95¢ $19 1h
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 79¢ $24 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 10d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $8 24d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $11 24d
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 87¢ $17 24d
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 25d
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 25d
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the BUY No 98¢ $10 29d
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the BUY No 98¢ $10 29d
Will fewer than 100 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 29d
Will fewer than 100 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 29d
Will fewer than 100 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $24 29d
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No 95¢ $19 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 67¢ $7 35d
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar BUY Mariano Navone 90¢ $18 35d
Will Brooklyn Pickleball Team finish in 1st place at the Major League BUY No 98¢ $10 35d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 53¢ $5 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,472.05 · official $1,472.03 (match) · 1709 history records