Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98f7…813e other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$174 (-0%) realized −$175 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%29W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,698per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$40
14 days−$146
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$95
politics 35% −$103
sports 12% +$668
culture 2% −$3
world 1% −$681
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -3.5% -12.7% 9% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 109 -4.4% -13.5% 9% 6% -10.0%
all 141 +5.3% -4.7% 21% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 13% -9.6%
10% -13.8% 13% -18.3%
15% -22.2% 11% -26.2%
20% -29.8% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,343) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$17 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$1,371
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses29 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1,698
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,097 $1,097 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $273 $274 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,205 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $157 +$1 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,196 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $6,189 −$7 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $3,230 −$5 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,603 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,603 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,160 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7,632 −$9 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,458 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $6,270 −$7 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,926 −$4 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,702 −$6 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $6,658 −$8 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,277 −$4 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $4,822 −$6 -0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 02 $49 +$69 +140%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $783 +$2 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 26 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $1,196 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $4,070 −$5 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $5,204 −$6 -0%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 24 $60 +$68 +114%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $6,330 −$7 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,662 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $2,855 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,668 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $3,296 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,098 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $637 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $638 4h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 42h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,196 45h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,318 47h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,320 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,589 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,592 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,598 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,600 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,600 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,603 3d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,600 3d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,603 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,599 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,602 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,595 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,597 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,499 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,501 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,609 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,611 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,569 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,571 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,579 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $72 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,581 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $201 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,640 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,371.06 · official $1,371.06 (match) · 505 history records