Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98f4…25b7 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+18%) realized +$80 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$60
sports 6% −$13
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 36% +20.2%
≤30d 25 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 36% +20.2%
≤90d 25 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 36% +20.2%
all 25 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 36% +20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 36% +20.2%
10% -23.9% 32% +8.7%
15% -31.3% 32% -1.8%
20% -38.0% 28% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 66¢ $93 $75 −$18 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $38 +$50 +130%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 +$8 +54%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +324%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$9 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +52%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 −$5 -80%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 −$5 -18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$4 +226%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $37 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $31 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $26 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.64 · official $74.64 (match) · 61 history records