Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
98 0x98f3…bf14 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,300 (-7%) realized −$1,282 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$170
14 days−$170
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$2,196
other 15% −$59
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 33% -15.3%
≤30d 6 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 33% -15.3%
≤90d 6 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 33% -15.3%
all 46 -16.7% -24.7% 46% 39% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 39% -21.9%
10% -31.9% 37% -29.4%
15% -38.5% 24% -36.2%
20% -44.5% 22% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$506) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$274 vs −$320 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$1,191
Realized−$1,282
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage595d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 36¢ 57¢ $360 $575 +$215 (+60%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 78¢ 81¢ $335 $350 +$15 (+4%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Under 54¢ 47¢ $270 $235 −$35 (-13%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $244 $31 −$213 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $172 +$46 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $527 −$520 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $457 −$450 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $576 +$676 +117%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $912 +$88 +10%
Cowboys vs. Jets Oct 05 $1,349 −$1,349 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $500 +$849 +170%
Vikings vs. Browns Oct 05 $426 −$426 -100%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $383 −$383 -100%
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Oct 05 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $615 −$615 -100%
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. Oct 05 $1,002 +$539 +54%
Magomedov vs. Pyfer Oct 05 $506 −$297 -59%
Santos vs. Yoo Oct 05 $310 +$234 +75%
Mix vs. Wiklacz Oct 05 $449 +$1,230 +274%
Muniz vs. Shahbazyan Oct 05 $280 −$280 -100%
Santos vs. Chiasson Oct 05 $994 −$994 -100%
Gutierrez vs. Basharat Oct 05 $74 −$74 -100%
Soriano vs. Veretennikov Oct 05 $448 +$220 +49%
Penn State vs. UCLA Oct 04 $232 +$276 +119%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Jan 27 $216 −$216 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Nov 29 $114 −$114 -100%
Will AC Milan beat Slovan Bratislava? Nov 27 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen beat RB Salzburg? Nov 27 $92 +$22 +24%
Nets vs. Celtics Nov 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Nov 09 $735 −$735 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bulls Nov 08 $676 +$180 +27%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Nov 07 $74 −$74 -100%
Raptors vs. Kings Nov 07 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Young Boys? Nov 07 $490 −$490 -100%
Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? Nov 07 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? Nov 07 $1 +$1 +203%
Will Feyenoord beat RB Salzburg? Nov 07 $175 +$325 +186%
Will Barcelona beat Red Star Belgrade? Nov 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Nov 06 $983 +$261 +27%
Magic vs. Mavericks Nov 04 $511 +$56 +11%
Will Villa win on 2024-11-03? Nov 04 $308 +$108 +35%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Nov 03 $312 +$533 +171%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Nov 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Nov 03 $50 +$4 +8%
Celtics vs. Hornets Nov 02 $293 +$69 +23%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Nov 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Suns vs. Clippers Nov 01 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Nevada rally on Oct 31? Nov 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Spurs vs. Jazz Nov 01 $50 +$39 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 78¢ $337 24m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 68¢ $337 26m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $248 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $367 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 75¢ $156 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 75¢ $21 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 75¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 75¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 75¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 75¢ $10 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 40¢ $393 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 59¢ $172 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,095 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $527 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Over $9 3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $457 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $14 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $14 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $321 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $161 37h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 91¢ $912 38h
Cowboys vs. Jets BUY Jets 53¢ $1,349 256d
Will Everton win on 2025-10-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,349 256d
Vikings vs. Browns BUY Browns 55¢ $426 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,190.88 · official $1,190.92 (match) · 228 history records