Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
98 0x98f3…3ca0 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$806 (+17%) realized +$826 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$953
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.9% +4.9% 58% 58% +13.9%
≤30d 12 +15.9% +4.9% 58% 58% +13.9%
≤90d 12 +15.9% +4.9% 58% 58% +13.9%
all 12 +15.9% +4.9% 58% 58% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 58% +13.9%
10% -5.1% 58% +3.0%
15% -14.3% 58% -7.0%
20% -22.7% 58% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$274 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$732
Realized+$826
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $453 $442 −$11 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Under 49¢ 48¢ $299 $290 −$9 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $327 +$305 +93%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $291 −$287 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 29 $321 −$316 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $254 +$256 +101%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 28 $499 +$504 +101%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $310 +$226 +73%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $537 +$521 +97%
Panama vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $488 −$250 -51%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $256 +$304 +119%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $212 +$228 +108%
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $189 −$186 -98%
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $336 −$331 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $304 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $291 15h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $321 16h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $327 18h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $458 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $254 33h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $310 47h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $294 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $204 2d
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $307 2d
Panama vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $254 2d
Panama vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $223 2d
Panama vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $235 2d
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $230 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $212 3d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $256 3d
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $189 3d
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $169 3d
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $166 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $731.52 · official $731.52 (match) · 26 history records