Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98f2…bd80 politics 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%9W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$15
economics 14% −$2
other 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 93 -6.3% -15.2% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses9 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage696d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $53 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $54 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Sean Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kawhi Leonard lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Fred VanVleet lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Avery Johnson win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nico Iamaleava win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "monkey pox" in his next speech? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the Western Conference? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $53 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $54 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 28d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $54 44d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $54 45d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 47d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 48d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 67d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 68d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 68d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 72d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 72d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 83d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 84d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $55 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $55 101d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 103d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 104d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $55 105d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $55 106d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $55 108d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $55 109d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records