Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
98 0x98f2…65dc sports 391 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,415 (+9%) realized +$3,538 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%225W / 162L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$352est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$921
7 days+$222
14 days+$247
30 days+$1,443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$3,892
other 18% −$1,046
world 3% −$14
crypto 0% −$20
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -29.4% -36.2% 38% 38% -8.3%
≤30d 127 -5.1% -14.2% 51% 50% -3.2%
≤90d 291 +2.3% -7.4% 58% 57% -2.0%
all 387 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 57% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 57% -2.6%
10% -15.7% 54% -11.9%
15% -23.8% 50% -20.4%
20% -31.3% 42% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$79 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$3,538
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses225 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$352
Open positions4
Markets (closed)387 / 391
History coverage124d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 55¢ 16¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-76%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$102 +67%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $304 +$284 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $192 +$123 +64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $385 +$345 +90%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $162 −$160 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $136 −$135 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $46 −$31 -68%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $396 −$396 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $708 −$708 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $997 −$997 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $405 +$285 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $192 +$69 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$32 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 +$150 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$96 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $304 +$196 +65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 +$70 +70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $34 +$45 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,992 +$2,012 +101%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
PEC Zwolle vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $192 3h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $162 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $385 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $136 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $405 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $192 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $396 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $11 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $103 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $131 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 28h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $96 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 29h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $47 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $8 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $52 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.06 · official $39.33 · 915 history records