Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98f1…fe43 world 40 markets active 3h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2,124 (-12%) realized +$31 · open −$2,155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$46
14 days+$623
30 days+$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$2,149
finance 9% +$505
politics 2% −$146
crypto 1% −$16
sports 1% −$101
other 0% −$40
tech 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 33% -10.7%
≤30d 24 -12.6% -20.9% 54% 42% -6.2%
≤90d 37 -23.7% -31.0% 49% 41% -7.8%
all 37 -23.7% -31.0% 49% 41% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 41% -7.8%
10% -37.6% 22% -16.6%
15% -43.6% 11% -24.7%
20% -49.1% 8% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$96 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1,868
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$2,155
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage55d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $1,865 $1,283 −$582 (-31%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $599 $572 −$27 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 0¢ $1,560 $13 −$1,547 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $1,618 +$505 +31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $959 −$591 -62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $911 +$40 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,505 +$238 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $1,190 +$328 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $994 +$96 +10%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 01 $68 −$30 -44%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $15 −$8 -50%
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? Jun 01 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States A May 31 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2,090 +$444 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $674 −$555 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $162 +$18 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $102 −$101 -99%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 23 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto May 20 $15 +$3 +18%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 20 $40 +$4 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 20 $395 −$30 -8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 20 $94 +$32 +33%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $29 +$16 +56%
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $413 +$87 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $72 −$3 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $209 −$190 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 06 $16 −$15 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $289 +$105 +36%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 04 $117 −$115 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 01 $1 $0 -31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $328 +$55 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $275 +$43 +16%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 28 $49 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $480 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $64 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $250 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $851 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $300 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $125 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $175 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $3 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $36 27h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,747 28h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $71 28h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $164 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $70 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $808 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $362 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $307 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $34 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $103 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $166 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $111 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $47 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $164 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $21 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $367 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $368 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $54 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,868.03 · official $1,868.03 (match) · 178 history records