Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x98f1…2306 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-14%) realized −$72 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$90
other 19% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 42 -33.6% -39.9% 33% 33% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 33% -26.4%
10% -45.7% 33% -33.5%
15% -50.9% 33% -39.9%
20% -55.7% 31% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -89% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage114d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $111 $99 −$12 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 12 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 09 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 07 $10 +$13 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 07 $20 +$31 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 06 $20 +$22 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 06 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $20 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.67 · official $98.67 (match) · 105 history records