Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x98f1…d0e9 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.3% -13.4% 88% 12% -8.8%
≤30d 8 -4.3% -13.4% 88% 12% -8.8%
≤90d 8 -4.3% -13.4% 88% 12% -8.8%
all 8 -4.3% -13.4% 88% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 12% -8.8%
10% -21.7% 12% -17.5%
15% -29.3% 12% -25.5%
20% -36.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$64 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $196 $202 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $190 +$5 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $145 +$8 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $107 +$39 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $96 +$6 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $87 +$6 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $196 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $195 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $190 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 86¢ $191 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $153 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $145 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $145 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $107 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $102 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $96 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $96 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $92 34h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $93 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $87 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.18 · official $202.18 (match) · 19 history records