Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x98f1…1445 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$434 (-12%) realized −$436 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$266
14 days+$212
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$374
other 2% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +20.2% +8.7% 70% 70% +12.1%
≤30d 37 +51.4% +37.0% 62% 59% +2.7%
≤90d 37 +51.4% +37.0% 62% 59% +2.7%
all 82 +8.2% -2.1% 46% 45% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 45% -20.2%
10% -11.5% 43% -27.9%
15% -20.0% 39% -34.8%
20% -27.9% 30% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$38 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$436
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage245d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 22¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winner paiN 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 44¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Pacheco 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 20¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card) Vera 27¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Heroic 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs FURIA 22¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 60¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Legacy 64¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BetBoom Team 28¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Seahawks vs. Patriots Patriots 33¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 B8 55¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 MIBR 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Spirit 38¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner MOUZ 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$20 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $141 +$48 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 +$27 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $53 +$87 +163%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $180 −$144 -80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $151 +$24 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $45 +$20 +43%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $46 +$46 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $45 +$23 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $85 +$16 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$25 +124%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$28 +93%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $71 +$23 +32%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 +$19 +73%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $85 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$8 +81%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $35 −$20 -56%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$19 +1843%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 +$12 +48%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $42 +$23 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $40 +$24 +59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $71 +$32 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Mar 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $280 +$70 +25%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Mar 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner Mar 01 $5 +$3 +56%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 01 $9 +$10 +110%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 01 $46 +$54 +117%
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca Mar 01 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main C Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $31 +$69 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $37 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $101 8h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 13¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 17¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $25 9h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $40 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $15 20h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $30 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $22 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 38¢ $17 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 38¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 38¢ $34 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 30¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 76¢ $94 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $65 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $151 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 49¢ $46 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 24¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 84¢ $85 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.14 · official $6.14 (match) · 202 history records