Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98ef…aa89 crypto 603 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$125 (-1%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%551W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day49.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$141
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 244 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 15% -9.2%
≤30d 603 -3.0% -12.2% 91% 9% -10.0%
≤90d 603 -3.0% -12.2% 91% 9% -10.0%
all 603 -3.0% -12.2% 91% 9% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 9% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 1% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses551 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)603 / 603
History coverage14d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 603 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 93¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 93¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 87¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 88¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.91 · official $5.00 · 1266 history records