Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98ec…b97c sports 130 markets active 6d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%62W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$8
crypto 37% −$23
other 9% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -50.2% -54.9% 38% 38% -51.6%
≤30d 39 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 46% -16.6%
≤90d 127 -7.3% -16.1% 49% 44% -12.4%
all 127 -7.3% -16.1% 49% 44% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 44% -12.4%
10% -24.1% 35% -20.8%
15% -31.5% 28% -28.5%
20% -38.2% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses62 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)127 / 130
History coverage35d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 80¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 11 $4 +$2 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Tucuman: Samuel Heredia vs Hernan Casanova Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 10 $2 +$2 +122%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 +$5 +256%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $2 +$1 +61%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) Jun 10 $2 +$2 +122%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $2 +$1 +49%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 +$1 +40%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +88%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $2 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +28%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 +$1 +72%
Spread: Philippines (-1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$2 +120%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $2 +$3 +130%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 09 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $2 $0 +11%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5) May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 33¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Tallon Griekspoor 25¢ $2 6d
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang BUY Mei Yamaguchi 69¢ $2 6d
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang BUY Mei Yamaguchi 71¢ $2 6d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 45¢ $2 7d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 45¢ $2 7d
Tucuman: Samuel Heredia vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 99¢ $2 7d
Tucuman: Samuel Heredia vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 99¢ $2 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $2 7d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 21¢ $2 7d
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 44¢ $2 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 70¢ $2 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $2 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $2 7d
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Matthew Dellavedova BUY Hoyoung Roh 27¢ $2 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 7d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 61¢ $2 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 17¢ $2 7d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 44¢ $2 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $2 7d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 94¢ $2 7d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Iceland 71¢ $2 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 73¢ $2 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 7d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $2 7d
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $2 7d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $2 7d
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio SELL Nuria Brancaccio 90¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.97 · official $5.98 (match) · 310 history records