Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98eb…60f0 sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%45W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$107
14 days−$28
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$400
other 11% −$11
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.6% -30.8% 36% 36% -19.1%
≤30d 42 -11.8% -20.2% 48% 45% -8.4%
≤90d 62 -21.2% -28.7% 44% 40% -15.2%
all 102 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 41% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 41% -13.9%
10% -30.6% 39% -22.2%
15% -37.3% 36% -29.7%
20% -43.5% 29% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$59 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses45 / 57
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage130d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Taylor Fritz 68¢ 68¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $132 +$92 +70%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $98 −$97 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 17 $80 −$79 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $76 +$94 +123%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $124 −$122 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $132 −$21 -16%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $139 +$95 +69%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $167 −$77 -46%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $81 +$77 +95%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $132 −$27 -20%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $138 −$135 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $116 +$21 +18%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $85 +$65 +76%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $113 +$71 +63%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $175 +$76 +44%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $50 +$19 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $79 +$94 +119%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $118 +$180 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $180 −$157 -87%
Nick Kyrgios vs. Corentin Moutet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $71 −$70 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $121 +$45 +38%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 05 $100 −$99 -99%
Birmingham: Felix Gill vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 04 $157 +$53 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 04 $99 −$95 -96%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 03 $76 −$13 -18%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $253 +$209 +82%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $250 +$81 +32%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 02 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $208 −$35 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $102 +$123 +120%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $253 +$150 +59%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 30 $81 −$80 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $150 +$71 +47%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $153 +$252 +165%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $152 −$97 -64%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $188 −$132 -70%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $169 +$13 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $172 −$114 -66%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $59 −$58 -98%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 23.5 May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $26 −$25 -98%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 03 $302 +$60 +20%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Francisco Comesana Apr 06 $110 −$109 -99%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Marco Trungelliti vs Rafael Jodar Apr 05 $23 −$22 -98%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tommy Paul vs Frances Tiafoe Apr 04 $91 +$42 +46%
Split: Mili Poljicak vs Kimmer Coppejans Apr 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $125 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $224 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $132 7h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 58¢ $98 40h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 46¢ $80 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $170 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $76 3d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 22¢ $12 3d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 32¢ $31 3d
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 71¢ $124 5d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Flavio Cobolli 28¢ $24 5d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 45¢ $41 5d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 99¢ $234 5d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 58¢ $139 6d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Flavio Cobolli 43¢ $86 6d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $92 6d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $77 6d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 69¢ $88 6d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $91 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $158 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $81 6d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 99¢ $168 6d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 61¢ $79 6d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 25¢ $5 6d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 31¢ $10 6d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 32¢ $12 6d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 70¢ $62 6d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 26¢ $104 6d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Daniel Galan 44¢ $138 7d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 88¢ $136 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.09 · official $123.09 (match) · 217 history records