Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x98eb…8c14 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,405 (+28%) realized +$1,406 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$470
14 days+$470
30 days+$1,499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,366
other 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.6% -6.2% 40% 40% +21.7%
≤30d 9 +15.4% +4.4% 56% 56% +24.7%
≤90d 11 +8.3% -2.0% 55% 55% +15.2%
all 11 +8.3% -2.0% 55% 55% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 55% +15.2%
10% -11.4% 55% +4.2%
15% -20.0% 45% -5.9%
20% -27.8% 36% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$409 vs −$218 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$1,406
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage39d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $128 −$125 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $128 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $306 +$528 +172%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $407 +$593 +146%
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Group C Jun 03 $1,033 +$267 +26%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 03 $617 +$383 +62%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $33 −$3 -9%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoff May 24 $918 +$382 +42%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Leagu May 16 $578 +$302 +52%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 11 $442 −$438 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.22 · official $99.22 (match) · 20 history records