Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98e9…8dbe sports 783 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 142d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,556 (-11%) realized −$6,553 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%346W / 436L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$2,736
other 25% −$1,896
weather 20% −$952
crypto 0% +$17
world 0% +$61
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 216 -13.2% -21.5% 44% 38% -22.3%
all 782 -5.9% -14.9% 44% 40% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 40% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 36% -25.5%
15% -30.5% 29% -32.7%
20% -37.3% 24% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$51 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$6,553
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses346 / 436
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions1
Markets (closed)782 / 783
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 782 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $71 $68 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? May 05 $180 −$22 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 5? May 05 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 5? May 05 $31 −$30 -97%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 2? May 05 $67 −$30 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 3? May 05 $56 −$22 -40%
Will CD Castellón vs. Córdoba CF end in a draw? May 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers May 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins May 05 $29 −$29 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 May 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 2? May 05 $132 +$10 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants May 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 3? May 05 $49 −$22 -46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 05 $33 +$23 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros May 05 $151 +$46 +30%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals May 05 $35 +$31 +87%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $13 +$38 +287%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 4? May 04 $39 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 4? May 04 $51 +$12 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 4? May 04 $65 −$52 -80%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 03 $31 +$19 +62%
Will Real Racing Club vs. SD Huesca end in a draw? May 03 $51 −$2 -4%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 May 03 $28 +$22 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 03 $34 +$15 +43%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $59 −$31 -52%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 May 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $106 −$75 -70%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $25 +$25 +100%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-04-24? May 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 May 02 $46 −$46 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 02 $93 −$93 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 1? May 02 $65 −$65 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5 May 02 $41 $0 +1%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 02 $10 $0 -4%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? May 02 $32 −$9 -29%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 02 $17 −$8 -44%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 May 02 $18 +$5 +30%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $69 +$23 +34%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 02 $63 +$34 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $55 −$31 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on May May 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 1? May 01 $72 +$1 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Apr 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes $0 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 5? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes $4 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 5? SELL Yes $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 5? SELL No 26¢ $3 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 5? BUY Yes $4 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 5? BUY No 25¢ $3 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.03 · official $68.03 (match) · 3500 history records