Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98e8…5b64 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$134
other 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 23% -18.6%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 23% -18.6%
≤90d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 23% -18.6%
all 13 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 23% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 23% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 23% -26.4%
15% -27.1% 23% -33.5%
20% -34.2% 15% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$33 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $206 +$9 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $61 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $178 −$99 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $107 +$39 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $361 +$30 +8%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 24 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $206 −$97 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $87 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $68 4m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 5m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $59 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $53 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $63 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $16 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $12 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $146 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records