Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x98e4…86b9 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$232 (+9%) realized +$234 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$275
sports 2% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 82% 55% -0.1%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 82% 55% -0.1%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 82% 55% -0.1%
all 11 -0.1% -9.6% 82% 55% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 55% -0.1%
10% -18.3% 9% -9.6%
15% -26.2% 9% -18.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$27 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.2 per $1 lost it wins $5.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$234
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $362 +$72 +20%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$47 -92%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $401 +$18 +5%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $321 +$61 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $246 +$28 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$17 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $402 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 14h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $362 16h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 95¢ $401 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $300 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $251 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $71 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $227 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $19 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.67 · official $397.67 (match) · 26 history records