Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98e1…879a crypto 1119 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate37%417W / 699L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day66.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$127
14 days−$247
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 540 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 40% -11.9%
≤30d 1116 -2.6% -11.9% 37% 28% -12.2%
≤90d 1116 -2.6% -11.9% 37% 28% -12.2%
all 1116 -2.6% -11.9% 37% 28% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 28% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 22% -20.6%
15% -28.0% 17% -28.2%
20% -35.1% 14% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses417 / 699
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1116 / 1119
History coverage30d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 20¢ 46¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+132%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$18 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$10 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$16 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.04 · official $8.99 · 3099 history records