Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x98dc…e3f0
crypto · 1843 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,113 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,111 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,111
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1123 / 653
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1776 / 1843
History coverage13d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day181.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 1776 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,264
7 days−$2,341
14 days−$1,111
30 days−$1,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 38¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 47¢ 40¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - EMEA Masters Pla Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$2,276
sports 2% +$132
weather 0% −$28
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1245 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 48% -39.8%
≤30d 1776 +1.3% -8.3% 63% 55% -17.4%
≤90d 1776 +1.3% -8.3% 63% 55% -17.4%
all 1776 +1.3% -8.3% 63% 55% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover181.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 55% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 47% -25.3%
15% -25.1% 39% -32.5%
20% -32.5% 33% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.45 · official $2.04 (match) · 3500 history records