Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x98dc…9949 other 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,960 (-42%) realized −$9,548 · open −$412
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%28W / 92L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days+$597
30 days+$1,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$5,837
world 23% −$1,053
other 20% −$563
economics 12% −$964
crypto 6% −$790
tech 3% −$27
culture 2% −$452
finance 2% +$9
sports 1% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 +14.2% +3.4% 38% 38% +66.9%
≤90d 50 -53.0% -57.5% 18% 14% -32.9%
all 120 -33.1% -39.4% 23% 19% -51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 19% -51.3%
10% -45.2% 18% -56.0%
15% -50.5% 18% -60.2%
20% -55.4% 16% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$140 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$3,001
Realized−$9,548
Unrealized−$412
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses28 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)120 / 140
History coverage598d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,000 $1,289 +$289 (+29%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $499 $603 +$104 (+21%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 45¢ 36¢ $486 $394 −$92 (-19%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-9%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 37¢ 26¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $101 $67 −$34 (-34%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 16¢ 7¢ $100 $45 −$55 (-55%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? Yes 47¢ 28¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $100 $28 −$71 (-72%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $100 $9 −$91 (-91%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-93%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $87 $2 −$85 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $598 +$607 +101%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $350 +$71 +20%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $151 +$626 +414%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $146 −$31 -22%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $87 −$64 -73%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $51 +$45 +90%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 11 $76 −$7 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 10 $492 +$19 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $50 +$47 +94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $50 −$11 -21%
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 15 $100 +$279 +280%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 6? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 17? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 24? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Apr 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in November 2025? Apr 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Apr 15 $35 −$35 -100%
US strikes Iran by October 31? Apr 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by November 30? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 15 $199 −$79 -40%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Apr 15 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Apr 15 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Apr 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 15 $499 −$499 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $375 +$290 +77%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $728 −$687 -94%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $100 −$73 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 16m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 22m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 40m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 40m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 51m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 57m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 45¢ $499 22h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 41h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 43h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 44h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 44h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $321 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $141 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,001.44 · official $3,001.44 (match) · 511 history records