Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x98db…54dc other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$169 (+26%) realized +$201 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days+$221
14 days+$221
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$27
sports 37% +$161
crypto 12% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +59.8% +44.6% 67% 67% +54.1%
≤30d 9 +59.8% +44.6% 67% 67% +54.1%
≤90d 20 +34.7% +21.9% 55% 55% +41.5%
all 20 +34.7% +21.9% 55% 55% +41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.9% 55% +41.5%
10% +10.2% 55% +27.9%
15% -0.5% 55% +15.6%
20% -10.2% 45% +4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$13 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$201
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)20 / 30
History coverage45d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $97 $93 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $53 $41 −$12 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+27%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $71 +$26 +36%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$66 +128%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $67 −$67 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $55 +$150 +272%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -88%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$6 +188%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 09 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 09 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 09 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 09 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 09 $2 +$9 +381%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $10 22m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 95¢ $96 25m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $71 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $104 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $67 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $206 39h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 41h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $55 42h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.01 · official $243.01 (match) · 72 history records