Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98d8…b1bc other 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$47
sports 24% −$13
economics 7% −$6
politics 7% −$8
culture 7% −$9
world 4% −$3
crypto 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage134d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $358 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $354 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $457 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $435 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $783 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $301 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $713 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $459 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $260 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $520 −$2 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $410 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $446 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $479 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $632 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $344 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $526 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $425 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 5h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 7h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 7h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 9h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 11h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 13h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 14h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 16h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $63 17h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 18h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 26h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 28h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 30h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 31h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 33h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $63 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.13 · official $62.13 (match) · 1380 history records