Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98d6…722b crypto 1028 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,970 (-9%) realized −$2,957 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%466W / 561L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$167
14 days−$167
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$3,434
world 1% −$139
other 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -19.6% -27.3% 46% 43% -24.9%
≤30d 28 -19.6% -27.3% 46% 43% -24.9%
≤90d 181 -31.6% -38.1% 35% 32% -29.3%
all 1027 -12.5% -20.8% 45% 43% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 43% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 38% -27.1%
15% -35.3% 33% -34.1%
20% -41.6% 26% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$2,957
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses466 / 561
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1027 / 1028
History coverage118d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$8 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$29 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $57 −$35 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $88 +$20 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$40 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$23 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$35 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$19 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $31 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$35 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $78 −$41 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$26 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$25 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$15 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $34 +$7 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $47 −$45 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$39 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$13 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$34 +108%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 04 $26 +$11 +42%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 04 $12 +$6 +45%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 04 $10 +$8 +76%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 04 $17 +$17 +105%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 04 $10 +$14 +136%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 04 $36 −$24 -68%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 04 $20 −$5 -23%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 04 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 04 $16 +$14 +89%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 04 $36 +$29 +80%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 04 $25 −$24 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 04 $13 +$11 +84%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 04 $16 +$29 +184%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 03 $16 −$15 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 03 $21 +$24 +117%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 03 $15 −$15 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 03 $18 +$11 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $13 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $22 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $53 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $36 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $27 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $36 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $54 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.76 · official $36.76 (match) · 3186 history records