Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98d6…51dc other 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (290 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$131 (-1%) realized −$561 · open +$430
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate54%30W / 26L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day290.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$2,058now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$263
7 days+$309
14 days+$283
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$878
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (290 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +78.4% +61.4% 62% 22% -5.3%
≤30d 56 +76.7% +59.8% 54% 23% -6.3%
≤90d 56 +76.7% +59.8% 54% 23% -6.3%
all 56 +76.7% +59.8% 54% 23% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover290.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +59.8% 23% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here +44.5% 20% -15.3%
15% +30.6% 18% -23.5%
20% +17.8% 16% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late +89% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
28.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$37 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$2,058
Realized−$561
Unrealized+$430
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses30 / 26
Open positions16
Markets (closed)56 / 68
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$175
Trades / day290.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $179 $330 +$151 (+85%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 50¢ 98¢ $142 $276 +$135 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 70¢ 98¢ $147 $207 +$61 (+41%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $143 $189 +$46 (+32%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $177 $179 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $155 $158 +$3 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $162 $157 −$5 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 67¢ 62¢ $167 $157 −$10 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $148 $145 −$2 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $38 $47 +$9 (+23%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 22¢ 38¢ $17 $29 +$12 (+74%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+44%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$158 -27289%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $403 −$86 -21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $127 −$49 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $447 +$18 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $454 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $309 +$10 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $134 +$245 +183%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $358 −$25 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $216 +$91 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $67 −$33 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $223 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $540 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $314 +$223 +71%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $554 +$15 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $166 −$25 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $278 +$26 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $103 −$12 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $103 −$22 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $392 +$13 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $71 +$66 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $59 +$13 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $174 −$21 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $72 −$16 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$5 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $264 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $152 −$50 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $183 −$25 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $141 −$43 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $221 +$226 +102%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $23 +$116 +496%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $181 −$25 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $234 +$75 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $171 −$21 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $536 −$81 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $293 −$25 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $133 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $520 +$62 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 28m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 28m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 44m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $21 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $21 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $20 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $19 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $13 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,058.34 · official $2,055.42 (match) · 3500 history records