Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
98 0x98d6…027c sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,561 (-77%) realized −$5,561 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$5,822
14 days−$5,822
30 days−$5,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$5,922
sports 10% +$137
weather 4% +$1
crypto 4% +$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 50% -95.1%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 64% 36% -89.4%
≤90d 19 +11.4% +0.8% 74% 42% -78.9%
all 19 +11.4% +0.8% 74% 42% -78.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 42% -78.9%
10% -8.9% 37% -80.9%
15% -17.7% 37% -82.7%
20% -25.7% 37% -84.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$1,196 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,561
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage62d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 +$10 +102%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $36 +$39 +109%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 +$27 +134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $65 +$61 +94%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $42 +$22 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,937 −$5,896 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 29? May 30 $107 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $118 +$5 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 20 $251 +$27 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 13? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 78°F or higher on May 13? May 13 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 06 $101 +$101 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 20 $162 +$165 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $20 52m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $36 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $0 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $20 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $29 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $15 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 6h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 50¢ $13 8h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 51¢ $53 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $42 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 50¢ $26 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,651 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $48 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records