Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x98d6…4ddd crypto 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$626 (+11%) realized +$623 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%97W / 116L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day100.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$399
other 19% +$531
sports 19% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 +4.3% -5.6% 46% 44% +3.7%
≤30d 213 +4.3% -5.6% 46% 44% +3.7%
≤90d 213 +4.3% -5.6% 46% 44% +3.7%
all 213 +4.3% -5.6% 46% 44% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 44% +3.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 44% -6.3%
15% -22.9% 43% -15.3%
20% -30.4% 40% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$18 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$623
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses97 / 116
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)213 / 214
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day100.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 41¢ 46¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$50 +940%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$42 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$30 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $40 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$33 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$53 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $55 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.70 · official $45.85 · 353 history records