Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x98d6…91f4 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%27W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,417per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$25
14 days−$125
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$430
politics 36% −$89
sports 13% +$432
culture 3% −$6
world 3% +$1
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +5.4% -4.6% 15% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 93 -8.1% -16.9% 12% 8% -10.0%
all 137 +3.2% -6.6% 20% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 15% -9.6%
10% -15.5% 15% -18.2%
15% -23.7% 14% -26.1%
20% -31.2% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,981) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$11 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses27 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,417
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $354 $359 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $4,021 −$6 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,545 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,264 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,224 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,107 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,394 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,112 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,799 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,892 −$5 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5,432 −$7 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,641 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,620 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $9,476 −$10 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $53 +$42 +79%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $362 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $540 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,708 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $576 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $42 +$61 +146%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $69 +$43 +62%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,597 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $4,971 −$5 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,418 −$3 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,385 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $1,193 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3,995 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $1,383 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $7,417 −$7 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,355 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,291 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,332 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,979 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,981 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $2,392 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3,543 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,094 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,096 2h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,100 4h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,102 6h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $349 6h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $350 8h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $805 47h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $806 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,104 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,106 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,105 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,107 3d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,106 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,108 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,110 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,112 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $354 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,441 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,443 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,455 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,457 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,322 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,324 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,325 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,327 9d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,471 10d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,474 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,472 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,475 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,425 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.91 · official $358.91 (match) · 500 history records