Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x98d1…0c2d
weather · 95 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$21 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses15 / 78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage54d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 2? No 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 2? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C or higher on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 27? No 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 2? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 24? No 98¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 8? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 08 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 3? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 30? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 29? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 29? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $12 +$1 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 17? May 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 16? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on May 16? May 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 14? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 15? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 6? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or higher on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 6? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 6? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on May 5? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 5? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 5? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 5? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 4? May 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? May 04 $15 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on May 4? May 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 4? May 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 3? May 03 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% −$25
culture 2% +$1
world 2% +$1
politics 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $14 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $12 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $11 35h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $14 3d
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 11% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 33 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 93 -27.6% -34.5% 16% 0% -11.8%
all 93 -27.6% -34.5% 16% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 0% -11.8%
10% -40.7% 0% -20.2%
15% -46.5% 0% -27.9%
20% -51.7% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.86 · official $58.86 (match) · 288 history records