Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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98 0x98d0…f14a politics 330 markets active 4h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$58,232 (+17%) realized +$51,997 · open +$6,235
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate76%242W / 75L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,059per market
Trades / day48.5pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$20,051now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,298
7 days+$4,075
14 days+$2,766
30 days+$14,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$38,891
other 7% +$187
sports 1% −$772
economics 1% +$714
world 0% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -1.5% -10.9% 76% 38% -3.7%
≤30d 189 +1.4% -8.3% 74% 37% -2.7%
≤90d 317 +15.4% +4.4% 76% 35% -2.3%
all 317 +15.4% +4.4% 76% 35% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.4% 35% -2.3%
10% -5.6% 23% -11.6%
15% ← realistic here -14.7% 18% -20.2%
20% -23.1% 15% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,140) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$275 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$20,051
Realized+$51,997
Unrealized+$6,235
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses242 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions13
Markets (closed)317 / 330
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$1,059
Trades / day48.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 94¢ 100¢ $8,203 $8,753 +$550 (+7%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 44¢ 96¢ $3,229 $7,013 +$3,784 (+117%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? No 30¢ 98¢ $445 $1,451 +$1,005 (+226%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $570 $600 +$30 (+5%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 23¢ 100¢ $111 $493 +$382 (+343%)
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $354 $390 +$36 (+10%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 13¢ 46¢ $98 $345 +$248 (+254%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $257 $344 +$87 (+34%)
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff election by 10–15%? Yes 82¢ 97¢ $257 $304 +$47 (+18%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County? Yes 77¢ 98¢ $227 $289 +$62 (+27%)
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? No 95¢ 100¢ $49 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $282 +$16 +6%
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 24 $1,004 +$19 +2%
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 24 $362 +$48 +13%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $511 +$62 +12%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $220 +$128 +58%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $3,064 +$447 +15%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 24 $350 +$15 +4%
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $180 +$16 +9%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 24 $206 +$4 +2%
Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 24 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 24 $4,264 −$96 -2%
Will Michael Blake be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 24 $2,304 +$96 +4%
Will Mark Conway be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 24 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $1,859 +$409 +22%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $3,130 +$252 +8%
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $842 +$58 +7%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $215 +$23 +11%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 24 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $618 +$69 +11%
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $624 +$27 +4%
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $125 +$9 +7%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 24 $453 +$27 +6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 24 $4,402 +$1,476 +34%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 23 $109 +$7 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 23 $411 +$182 +44%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $780 +$36 +5%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $780 +$36 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $416 +$45 +11%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 22 $783 +$440 +56%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $10,125 +$1,046 +10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 21 $273 +$2 +1%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 21 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $369 −$369 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $58 +$55 +93%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $128 +$90 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $193 +$23 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $141 +$77 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $125 +$90 +72%
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $203 −$96 -47%
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $1,225 −$1,063 -87%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $414 −$222 -54%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 19 $233 +$152 +66%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $3,291 +$37 +1%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $1,191 −$66 -6%
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electi Jun 19 $724 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes 96¢ $350 3h
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 96¢ $35 3h
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY No 95¢ $185 3h
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? BUY Yes 99¢ $69 3h
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 91¢ $42 3h
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY No 93¢ $97 3h
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 91¢ $92 3h
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 89¢ $186 4h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $318 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 98¢ $1,417 4h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 95¢ $93 4h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $193 4h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $536 4h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $159 4h
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 95¢ $49 4h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $220 4h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 94¢ $88 4h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 89¢ $511 4h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 23¢ $115 4h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $52 4h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 70¢ $361 4h
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? BUY Yes 98¢ $185 4h
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? BUY Yes 96¢ $0 4h
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? BUY Yes 98¢ $91 5h
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? BUY No 93¢ $125 5h
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? BUY Yes 94¢ $370 5h
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY Yes 92¢ $180 5h
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY Yes 62¢ $123 6h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $187 6h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 72¢ $135 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,050.56 · official $20,050.56 (match) · 3500 history records