Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98d0…01a4 sports 2137 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,672 (-28%) realized −$3,007 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%921W / 1427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,701
7 days−$3,416
14 days−$3,143
30 days−$2,422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$532
other 16% +$165
crypto 1% +$46
finance 0% −$9
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 390 -78.4% -80.5% 11% 10% -72.8%
≤30d 701 -31.5% -38.1% 31% 30% -35.2%
≤90d 2152 -12.1% -20.4% 39% 39% -28.2%
all 2348 -11.5% -20.0% 39% 39% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 39% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 39% -34.6%
15% -34.6% 38% -40.9%
20% -41.0% 35% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$3,007
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses921 / 1427
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2348 / 2137
History coverage98d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+82%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+108%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 97¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+137%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+176%)
Benjamin Nygren: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
ASB Classic: Alycia Parks vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$7 +707%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SC Bastia vs. Grenoble Foot 38 end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Execration (BO1) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Angola win on 2025-12-22? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-04? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Falcons vs. Saints Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 217.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will US Cremonese vs. Juventus end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-02? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs FearX (BO3) - Six Invitational Group A Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Basel 1893 vs. FCSB end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Empoli FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Senators vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: Gen.G (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-03? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Aldosivi win on 2026-01-22? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-27? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-12-29? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-09? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Steelers vs. Lions Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs 9z (BO3) - Ace South American Masters Play Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-27? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-26? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Benjamin Nygren: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $5 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $3 2h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of SELL Riyadh Falcons 100¢ $14 2h
Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $3 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $2 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY 51¢ $3 4h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $8 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South America League SELL FaZe Clan 100¢ $21 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South America League BUY FaZe Clan 68¢ $15 6h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag SELL Toronto KOI 99¢ $15 6h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Toronto KOI 67¢ $10 7h
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr BUY LOUD 46¢ $6 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 99¢ $16 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 73¢ $12 9h
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - South America League SELL FURIA Esports 100¢ $12 9h
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - South America League BUY FURIA Esports 80¢ $10 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 98¢ $10 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 28¢ $3 13h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.59 · official $26.59 · 3500 history records