Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x98c9…c1c1 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$631 (+19%) realized +$589 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1,550
other 39% −$893
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+67.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +85.3% +67.7% 56% 50% +16.4%
≤30d 16 +85.3% +67.7% 56% 50% +16.4%
≤90d 16 +85.3% +67.7% 56% 50% +16.4%
all 16 +85.3% +67.7% 56% 50% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +67.7% 50% +16.4%
10% +51.6% 50% +5.3%
15% +37.0% 50% -4.9%
20% +23.6% 50% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +143% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$164 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,199
Realized+$589
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ 38¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 75¢ 98¢ $200 $260 +$60 (+30%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 87¢ 100¢ $200 $230 +$30 (+15%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 92¢ 100¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+8%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 41¢ $200 $138 −$62 (-31%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Over 14¢ 14¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 31¢ 32¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 68¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $174 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $154 +$537 +350%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $407 +$626 +154%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $705 −$700 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$24 +237%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 +$217 +704%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $31 +$60 +197%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $233 −$230 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$242 +158%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $102 23m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $102 23m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $102 23m
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $174 38m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $100 40m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $100 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $100 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $74 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $201 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $201 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $202 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $690 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1,033 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $102 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $51 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $102 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $102 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $102 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $102 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $247 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $31 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,199.08 · official $1,053.95 · 49 history records