Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
98 0x98c3…b28d other 19 markets active 19h ago coverage 252d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$60,091 (+32%) realized +$60,091 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$9,846per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$440est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24,114
7 days+$24,622
14 days+$24,622
30 days+$24,622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$652
crypto 19% +$33,757
sports 11% +$35,275
world 5% −$10,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +20.6% +9.1% 50% 50% +5.2%
≤30d 16 +20.6% +9.1% 50% 50% +5.2%
≤90d 17 +30.9% +18.4% 53% 53% +15.2%
all 19 +33.9% +21.2% 58% 58% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.2% 58% +18.8%
10% ← realistic here +9.6% 58% +7.4%
15% -1.0% 58% -3.0%
20% -10.7% 42% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$10,150) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12,176 vs −$9,444 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60,091
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$440
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage252d
Avg bet$9,846
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10,093 +$4,400 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10,099 +$4,826 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5,112 +$14,888 +291%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,150 +$9,850 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,210 +$23,123 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,117 −$10,000 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,147 −$10,000 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,102 −$10,000 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10,216 +$25,498 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10,138 −$10,138 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,129 −$10,129 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5,111 −$5,111 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,054 −$10,054 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,123 −$10,123 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,114 +$6,015 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,162 +$11,577 +114%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? May 08 $10,000 +$19,564 +196%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 02 $10,000 +$7,621 +76%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Nov 02 $15,000 +$6,572 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10,093 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10,099 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5,112 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10,117 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10,147 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10,102 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10,150 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10,210 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10,216 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10,054 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5,111 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10,129 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10,114 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10,123 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5,081 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5,069 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5,081 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5,069 4d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 34¢ $10,000 252d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? BUY No 70¢ $15,000 252d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 57¢ $10,000 252d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records