Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x98c2…d62f crypto 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+1%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate82%159W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$83
sports 19% +$102
other 1% +$2
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.7% +1.0% 100% 33% -0.7%
≤30d 109 -8.7% -17.4% 75% 27% -16.1%
≤90d 194 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 41% -9.0%
all 194 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 41% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 41% -9.0%
10% -16.7% 26% -17.7%
15% -24.7% 14% -25.6%
20% -32.1% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses159 / 35
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)194 / 198
History coverage89d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +143%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$28 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$7 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $53 +$7 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $61 +$5 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $61 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $33 +$15 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$1 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $45 +$2 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $20 −$2 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +33%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 06 $30 +$1 +2%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$12 +116%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 05 $30 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $30 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 7d
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $4 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $28 10d
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 81¢ $19 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.77 · official $27.77 (match) · 441 history records