Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98c1…97a2 other 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$43
sports 21% −$17
politics 10% −$5
culture 6% −$5
economics 4% −$2
world 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage127d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $760 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $402 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $575 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $340 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $285 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $302 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $377 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $705 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $130 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 11m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 3h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 4h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 6h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 7h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 9h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 10h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 16h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 18h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 20h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 22h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $54 26h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 34h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 36h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 38h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 39h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 42h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 46h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $5 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1347 history records