Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x98be…38d6 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+10%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$25
sports 14% $0
other 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.5% -1.8% 71% 36% -0.5%
≤30d 14 +8.5% -1.8% 71% 36% -0.5%
≤90d 14 +8.5% -1.8% 71% 36% -0.5%
all 14 +8.5% -1.8% 71% 36% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 36% -0.5%
10% -11.2% 7% -10.0%
15% -19.8% 7% -18.7%
20% -27.7% 0% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×34.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×85.66 per $1 lost it wins $85.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $44 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $34 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $13 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$5 +22%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $34 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 98¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records