Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98bd…781e sports 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$377 (-3%) realized −$571 · open +$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%103W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$1,045
14 days−$796
30 days−$856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$800
other 25% +$359
crypto 1% −$1
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$6
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -7.2% -16.0% 53% 53% -29.6%
≤30d 124 -14.7% -22.8% 48% 46% -20.3%
≤90d 208 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 48% -15.2%
all 208 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 48% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 48% -15.2%
10% -28.3% 44% -23.3%
15% -35.2% 36% -30.7%
20% -41.5% 26% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$34 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$2,407
Realized−$571
Unrealized+$194
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses103 / 105
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions29
Markets (closed)208 / 237
History coverage56d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $700 $681 −$20 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $534 $521 −$14 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 93¢ $121 $397 +$276 (+229%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 74¢ $222 $217 −$5 (-2%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 76¢ 65¢ $166 $142 −$24 (-14%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 79¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $64 $68 +$3 (+5%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ 56¢ $67 $60 −$7 (-10%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 82¢ 87¢ $50 $52 +$3 (+5%)
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 13¢ 6¢ $64 $30 −$34 (-52%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? Yes 35¢ 68¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+94%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 62¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-41%)
Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$148 +98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $156 +$48 +31%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $157 +$23 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $200 −$197 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $233 +$37 +16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $68 −$68 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $96 −$95 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $74 −$73 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $39 +$26 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $59 +$97 +165%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -45%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $104 +$36 +34%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $186 −$185 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $29 +$16 +54%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $11 +$7 +70%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $108 +$59 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 +$19 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $138 +$44 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $198 −$195 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $63 −$62 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $89 −$89 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 +$27 +26%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $181 −$176 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $110 +$147 +134%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$19 +134%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$16 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $37 +$12 +32%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $12 +$20 +158%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $89 −$88 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $74 −$55 -74%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $115 −$114 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $97 −$95 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $139 +$61 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $93 +$102 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $121 −$120 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $245 −$242 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +223%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $106 +$51 +48%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $79 +$51 +65%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $161 +$17 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $68 +$39 +57%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $151 −$149 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $62 −$61 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $92 +$33 +36%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +82%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $86 −$73 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 57m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $68 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 47¢ $5 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $152 3h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 83¢ $25 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $1 10h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $5 13h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 82¢ $25 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $200 22h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $68 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $156 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $3 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $157 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $73 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $74 27h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $21 40h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $233 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 43h
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $68 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $122 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $39 2d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $104 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $59 2d
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,406.74 · official $2,406.75 (match) · 557 history records