Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x98bd…afca sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+9%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$11
crypto 32% +$1
other 22% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 58% -1.4%
≤30d 26 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 58% -1.4%
≤90d 26 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 58% -1.4%
all 26 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 58% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 58% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 46% -10.8%
15% -30.0% 31% -19.5%
20% -36.9% 19% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 +$6 +31%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -63%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY $1 47m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a dr BUY 11¢ $1 48m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL XLG Gaming 15¢ $1 7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $1 8h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $1 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $2 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $9.00 · 69 history records