Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
98 0x98bc…ef07 politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 35L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$10
other 34% −$10
tech 6% −$1
finance 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
sports 5% −$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 35 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,028) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage86d
Avg bet$524
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? Jun 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $1,127 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 27 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,115 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 26 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $1,132 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Casey DeSantis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? May 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 12 $957 −$3 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $960 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $933 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? May 10 $969 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $870 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $119 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $834 2h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $253 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,088 2h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 18h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,113 19h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 19h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,099 19h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 19h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,095 19h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 19h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 20h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 20h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $764 20h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $262 20h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 20h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,054 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 33h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,130 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records