Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98bb…0e3d other 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$38
sports 24% −$34
politics 8% −$8
culture 8% −$10
crypto 6% −$5
economics 4% −$4
world 3% +$27
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 253 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×7.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 253
History coverage138d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $765 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,435 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $811 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $799 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $394 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $622 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $183 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $558 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $541 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $452 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $601 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $287 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $347 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $336 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $342 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $77 16m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $77 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $77 3h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $77 4h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $77 6h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $77 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $77 9h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $78 11h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $78 12h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $78 14h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $78 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $78 16h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $78 21h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $78 22h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $78 24h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 25h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $78 27h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 28h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $78 34h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $78 35h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 37h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 40h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 41h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 41h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $29 44h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $29 45h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 45h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $20 46h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1413 history records